Arctic stratosphere changes in the 21st century in the Earth system model SOCOLv4

Two ensemble simulations of a new Earth system model (ESM) SOCOLv4 (SOlar Climate Ozone Links, version 4) for the period from 2015 to 2099 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emission growth were analyzed investigate changes in key dynamical processes relevant Arctic stratospheric ozone. The shows 5–10 K cooling 5%–20% humidity increase lower–upper stratosphere March (when most considerable ozone depletion may occur) between 2080–2099 2015–2034. minimal temperature lower polar March, which defines strength depletion, appears when zonal mean meridional heat flux preceding January–February is lowest. In late 21st century, strengthening with maximum up 20 m/s (∼25%) upper close 70°N obtained scenario GHG emission, while only slight this parameter over 50 N–60 N 5 decrease comparable values high latitudes revealed scenario. Although confirm expected layer recovery, particularly total minimum inside cap throughout century are characterized by positive trend both scenarios, large-scale negative anomalies −80 DU–100 DU, second lowest ones observed 2011 but weaker than record 2020, possible until century. volume low air temperatures below solid nitric acid trihydrate cloud (PSC NAT) formation threshold reconstructed 3D potential vorticity fields vortex. A significant shown SSP5-8.5 Furthermore, according data, an vortex isolation indicates its stratosphere. Positive trends surface area density (SAD) PSC NAT particles 2015–2099 longitudinal shift toward northern Eurasia scenarios. statistically long-term sulfuric aerosol SSP5.8-5 scenario, probably due cooler stronger Brewer–Dobson circulation intensification. Both predict residual (RMC) end some regions stratosphere, RMC enhancement can exceed 20%.